Prediction-market odds just jumped. Here's why.
Alerts for Polymarket and Kalshi that pair each big odds move with its likely news cause. When there's no clear cause, we say so.
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What you get
- Move alerts, with the causeWhen a market's implied probability shifts sharply, you get the move plus the headline most likely behind it. If nothing in the news explains it, the alert says "no clear news, likely flow or noise".
- "Not yet priced" alertsFresh headlines matched to related markets whose odds haven't moved yet. These are news-to-market links, not predictions.
- Global news, not just EnglishCoverage that draws on news sources in multiple languages.
- Free twice-daily briefA public summary of the day's biggest moves and why they happened, free for everyone.
What an alert looks like
Example
Based on a real Polymarket move, shown for illustration. Not a live alert.
- Market
- US x Iran ceasefire through Oct 31 (Polymarket)
- Move
- The market-implied probability fell about 56.5 points around 16:59 BST on 19 Oct, then rebounded.
- Cause
- No clear news, likely flow or noise. We found no headline that explains the move.
What this isn't
We don't give picks or tips, and we don't tell you what to buy or sell. We describe what the market implies and what the news says, and you decide what to do with it.