we mark up the chart, so you don't have to
WhyTick pins the news to the exact minute Polymarket and Kalshi odds moved, and says plainly when nothing explains it.
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US x Iran ceasefire continues through 15 Nov?
how it works
Every alert goes through the same three marks on the timeline. Here's the 19 Oct ceasefire move, step by step (example).
18:10 · detected
Polymarket and Kalshi prices are checked every 5 minutes. Big moves are confirmed against the venue's own price history; blips and back-and-forth wicks are merged or dropped.
39% → 59.5% between 18:10 and 23:00, on 5-min prices.
then · explained
We line the move up with time-stamped reports. A headline only counts if it came before the odds moved. If nothing fits, we say "no clear news, likely flow or noise".
Illustrative: a report time-stamped after 18:10 can't be the trigger, so it wouldn't count.
later · checked
Later, we look at the price again. If we said "just noise", it should have drifted back. If we named a cause, the move should have stuck. Misses get published too.
See Were we right? below.
in the margin
No terminal and no jargon. Just what moved, when, and what the news did or didn't say.
When the implied probability shifts sharply, you get the move and the report most likely behind it.
If nothing explains a move, we say so instead of guessing: likely flow or noise.
A fresh headline matched to related markets that haven't moved yet. A link, not a prediction.
When Polymarket and Kalshi price the same question 8+ points apart, with real volume on both, we flag it with any rule differences.
Morning and evening: the biggest moves and why, free on X.
Every week we check our alerts against the price and post the results. Misses included.
the free brief
A short thread every morning and evening, UK time. Here's the format, filled in with real prices from 19–20 Oct and our own notes in red.
Example · 19–20 Oct 2026
📊 Why it moved: Tue 20 Oct, morning edition. Polymarket moves since Monday afternoon, UK time. 🧵
US x Iran ceasefire continues through 15 Nov?
39% → 59.5% from 18:10 to 23:00 Mon, a rebound after a flash crash (60.5% → 22.5% between 16:50 and 17:05). The market implies 56% at 09:55 Tue.
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
39% → 14.5% (20:45–21:25), then 16.5% → 38% by 21:55 Mon. No clear news: likely flow or noise. The market implies 14.5% at 09:55 Tue.
👀 Not yet priced? Illustrative
When a fresh, time-stamped headline touches a market whose odds haven't moved yet, this slot links the two and shows the market's current price. A link, not a prediction. (Format only: no real headline shown.)
Odds are what the market implies, not a forecast. Information only, not betting or investment advice.
the scorecard
Every alert we publish gets checked later. If we said "just noise", the price should drift back. If we named a cause, the move should stick. We post the results every week, misses included.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through 24 Oct? dropped 92.5% → 29.5% (Mon 17:10). We'd have said: no clear news, likely noise. 6 hours later the price had drifted back, to 88.5%. Right: it was just noise.
NATO x Russia military clash by 31 Dec 2026? jumped 22.5% → 32.5% (Sat 20:40). We'd have said: no clear news, likely noise. A day later the price had drifted back, to 25.5%. Right: it was just noise.
Kim Jong Un out as leader before 2027? jumped 2% → 15.5% (Mon 21:00). We'd have said: no clear news, likely noise. 6 hours later the price had drifted back, to 7.6%. Right: it was just noise.
Bank of Canada: 25 bps hike in October? jumped 29.8% → 72.1% (Mon 22:50). We'd have said: no clear news, likely noise. 6 hours later the price was still up, at 73.5%. Wrong: something real moved it.
Full replay: all 127 alerts the engine flagged from Thu 15 Oct 16:20 to Tue 20 Oct 16:20 (UK time), across the 333 Polymarket and Kalshi markets that pass its filters today: 47 right, 77 wrong, 3 too early to tell. We'll show an overall score once there are enough real calls to be fair.
polymarket vs kalshi
When the same question trades on both, we draw both lines. We only flag a gap of 8+ points, with real volume and tight books on each side.
Biggest raw gap that morning: 9.6 pts (Roberto Cidade, Amazonas governor, 1.4% vs 11.0%). We held it back: Kalshi's book was empty and neither side had traded in 24h. Many state races wait for review because Kalshi settles about 61 days after Polymarket.
pricing
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The brief
The twice-daily "why it moved" thread.
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questions
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No. We describe what the market implies and what the news says. We don't give tips or picks, and we never tell you to buy or sell anything.
We line up the exact time of the move with time-stamped news reports. A report counts only if it came before the odds moved. If nothing fits, we say "no clear news, likely flow or noise" rather than guess.
A fresh headline that looks relevant to a market whose odds haven't moved yet. It's a link between news and a market, not a prediction that the market will move.
Sometimes Polymarket and Kalshi list the same question at different prices. We flag gaps of 8 points or more when both sides have real volume and tight order books. Rules and resolution dates can differ between venues, so we show them next to the flag.
We look at the price again later. If we said "just noise", the price should drift back. If we named a cause, the move should stick. If we said news wasn't in the price yet, the price should move. If Polymarket and Kalshi disagreed, the gap should close. Every alert goes in the weekly results, misses included. The price decides, not us.
We're building them now. Pre-orders tell us how many people want them, and early-access members hear first. We'll email you before anything is charged.
Yes, WhyTick is an information service. Note that Polymarket trading isn't available in the UK and some other regions. Check the rules where you live.
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